How the levels work
Every 5 minutes the map counts what can be seen over 15 hotspots and compares it with a normal day. Nothing here is secret: it is the same public data anyone can look up, read together.
The signals
| Signal | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Tanker aircraft | Air-to-air refuelling stretches the range of fighters and bombers; tanker surges have preceded large air operations. |
| Airborne radar (AWACS) | Airborne early-warning aircraft run the air picture during operations and air defence alerts. |
| Surveillance aircraft | Reconnaissance and signals-intelligence aircraft (RC-135, P-8, RQ-4) watch an area before and during a crisis. |
| Military airlift | Heavy transports (C-17, A400M) move troops, munitions and air defence into a region. |
| All military aircraft | Every aircraft flagged military that broadcasts its position inside the region. |
| Civil air traffic | Airlines reroute and airspace closes before and during strikes, so the sky empties. |
| GPS interference | Share of aircraft reporting poor position accuracy, a sign of GPS jamming or spoofing. |
| Conflict news events | Assaults, fighting and mass violence located in the region by the GDELT news monitor. |
| 24-hour buildup | Hours flown by tanker, radar, surveillance and transport aircraft over the past 24 hours. Before both strikes the map was tested on, this was the signal that rose first. |
Aircraft come from adsb.lol, a community network of receivers that pick up the position broadcasts aircraft send. Military aircraft are recognised by the network's military flag and sorted into roles by their type code. Civil traffic and GPS quality are measured inside fixed circles over each region. GPS interference follows the method of gpsjam.org: the share of aircraft whose reported position accuracy (NIC) is poor. Conflict events come from GDELT, which codes news reports from around the world every 15 minutes.
From signals to a level
Each signal is compared with the same time of day over the past 7 days, so a busy morning is not mistaken for a surge. The distance from normal is measured in standard deviations, with a floor so that one extra tanker over an empty sky does not count as a huge jump. Signals that are above normal add up, each capped, into a score:
| Level | Score | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Normal | below 3 | Activity looks like a normal day for this time. |
| 2 Watch | 3 to 6 | One or two signals are above their normal range. |
| 3 Unusual | 6 to 10 | Several signals are well above normal at once. |
| 4 High | 10 to 15 | Strongly unusual activity across several signals. |
| 5 Extreme | 15 or more | The most unusual activity this map measures. |
A level rises when two rounds in a row agree and only drops after 30 minutes below, so a single odd reading does not flip the map. Two facts set a floor on their own: a sky that has emptied (civil traffic at most a fifth of normal for a full hour) is at least High, and together with a surge in conflict news it is Extreme. GPS interference only counts when at least 15 civil aircraft are in view, because a few receivers are not a sample.
The comparison is always with the past week. A war that goes on for weeks slowly becomes the new normal for the score; the level then tracks change, such as escalation, not the war itself. Prediction market odds from Polymarket are shown next to a region for comparison but never enter the score.
Tested on past strikes
Before launch the same code was run on the full archive of adsb.lol and GDELT around two known events: the Israeli strikes on Iran that began around 23:30 UTC on 12 June 2025, and the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that began around 06:15 UTC on 28 February 2026. Each region was scored every 5 minutes as if the map had been live.
| Event | Region | Before the first strike | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Iran and the Gulf | Unusual from 17 hours before, High from 8 hours before | High again within 2 hours |
| June 2025 | Israel, Lebanon and Syria | Unusual at moments, no steady rise | Unusual |
| February 2026 | Iran and the Gulf | Unusual at moments, no steady rise | High after 2 hours, Extreme after 5 hours, for three days |
| February 2026 | Israel, Lebanon and Syria | Unusual from 32 hours before, High from 26 hours before | High within 1 hour |
The signal that rose first both times was the 24-hour buildup of tanker, radar and surveillance flights. In a quiet week (29 October to 4 November 2026) the same code never showed High in any of the 15 regions, and showed Unusual 33 times, 13 of them over Ukraine, where the war goes on.
Two events are not proof. The map is a reason to look closer, not a forecast: it caught one region of each strike in advance, and missed the other.
What it cannot see
- Aircraft that switch off their transponders. Strike aircraft, bombers and many military flights never show up; tankers, radar and transport aircraft often do.
- Places without receivers. Coverage over Iran, Sudan, the Sahel and open sea is thin, so a quiet reading there can mean no data.
- Ships, missiles, troop movements on the ground and anything classified.
- Intentions. Unusual activity can be an exercise, a deployment, a visit or a crisis. A high level is a reason to look, not a forecast of an attack.
Sources and licences
- Aircraft: © adsb.lol contributors, Open Database License 1.0.
- Conflict events: The GDELT Project.
- Market odds: Polymarket.
- Globe: CesiumJS with Natural Earth imagery.