All hotspots / Ukraine and the Black Sea
Ukraine and the Black Sea
1 NORMALActivity looks like a normal day for this time. Since .
live
The signals now
| Signal | Now | Normal |
|---|---|---|
| Tanker aircraft | 1 | 0 |
| Airborne radar (AWACS) | 0 | 0 |
| Surveillance aircraft | 0 | 0 |
| Military airlift | 0 | 1 |
| All military aircraft | 3 | 2 |
| Civil air traffic | 5 | 3 |
| GPS interference | 60% | n/a |
| Conflict news events | n/a | 4 |
| 24-hour buildup | n/a | 9.6 h |
Normal = the average at this time of day over the past 7 days. Measured 2026-11-06 13:50 UTC.
What the markets say
- 16% yes · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
- 8% yes · Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?
- 12% yes · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
- 94% yes · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Odds from Polymarket, shown for comparison. They are not part of the level.
The last 7 days
Why these signals
- Tanker aircraft. Air-to-air refuelling stretches the range of fighters and bombers; tanker surges have preceded large air operations.
- Airborne radar (AWACS). Airborne early-warning aircraft run the air picture during operations and air defence alerts.
- Surveillance aircraft. Reconnaissance and signals-intelligence aircraft (RC-135, P-8, RQ-4) watch an area before and during a crisis.
- Military airlift. Heavy transports (C-17, A400M) move troops, munitions and air defence into a region.
- Civil air traffic. Airlines reroute and airspace closes before and during strikes, so the sky empties.
- GPS interference. Share of aircraft reporting poor position accuracy, a sign of GPS jamming or spoofing.
- Conflict news events. Assaults, fighting and mass violence located in the region by the GDELT news monitor.
- 24-hour buildup. Hours flown by tanker, radar, surveillance and transport aircraft over the past 24 hours. Before both strikes the map was tested on, this was the signal that rose first.